The reported invasion of Venezuela and the eventual capture of Nicolás Maduro have once again unsettled the foundations of international law, state sovereignty, and the limits of external intervention. Maduro’s descent did not begin with foreign boots on Venezuelan soil; it began when he reportedly lost the July 2024 election and refused to relinquish power. Despite opposition claims backed by technological evidence and corroborated by international observers, Maduro clung to office through repression, militarization, and state capture. His fall illustrates a recurring global lesson: when electoral legitimacy is subverted and tyranny replaces consent, sovereignty becomes fragile.
Maduro’s prolonged stay in power was sustained by the backing of the military establishment, suppression of dissent, and allegations of enabling transnational criminal networks, including drug trafficking cartels. These allegations later formed the moral and political justification advanced by the United States for intervention. However, beyond rhetoric about democracy and human rights lies the enduring reality of strategic interests, most notably Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. History shows that where American military intervention occurs, economic interests often travel alongside humanitarian justifications.
Nigeria today presents troubling parallels. President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerged from the highly disputed 2023 general elections with barely 36 percent of the total votes cast, amid widespread allegations of electoral manipulation, compromised result collation, and the now infamous “technical glitches” under the watch of the electoral umpire. Rather than seek legitimacy through inclusion, consultation, and people-centred governance, the administration has entrenched exclusionary politics and imposed far-reaching economic policies without public consensus.
The consequences have been devastating. While the removal of fuel subsidy has increased government revenue, Nigeria’s domestic and foreign borrowings have reportedly surged beyond the cumulative debt profile of the previous eight years. Inflation, unemployment, and poverty have deepened, while corruption appears emboldened rather than curtailed. The security situation has deteriorated alarmingly, with terrorists, bandits, and kidnappers operating with renewed confidence, often under the guise of controversial negotiations and so-called peace deals.
In the midst of this national distress, the government’s overriding preoccupation appears to be the 2027 general elections.
Democratic institutions have increasingly come under executive capture, lubricated by incentives and intimidation. Civil liberties, particularly the right to free expression and peaceful protest, are being constricted through the aggressive deployment of the Cybercrimes Act. The ruling party has moved to impose a sole presidential candidacy while systematically weakening opposition parties through orchestrated defections and selective prosecutions. Opposition figures who resist are pursued by anti-graft agencies on charges widely perceived as politically motivated.
Security has not been spared politicisation. Despite voting over ₦3.10 trillion for defence, Nigeria lacks a coherent, transparent, and secular security strategy. Genocidal killings persist, and the security architecture appears compromised by sponsors and beneficiaries of violence. Disturbingly, allegations have emerged of foreign concern over mass killings, culminating in reports of American-led airstrikes against terrorist enclaves within Nigeria. History cautions that U.S. airstrikes rarely end as limited operations; they often precede broader political outcomes, including regime change.
Nigeria’s vast oil and mineral resources place it squarely within the strategic calculations of global powers. What separates stability from catastrophe is leadership restraint and democratic fidelity. Should the government persist in authoritarian tendencies, through electoral manipulation, institutional capture, and the imposition of contested laws such as the alleged tax fraud legislation, it risks triggering forces beyond its control. If the 2027 elections are rigged, that act may become the final catalyst.
The warning is clear: democracy subverted invites consequences unforeseen. Those entrusted with Nigeria’s electoral and political future must tread carefully, for history is unforgiving. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Professor Joash Amupitan, INEC and APC, watch your backs.
Happy Sunday.
Solomon Dalung, LLM, LLB, BL
Garkuwa Arewa & Dike Egwureogwu
Voice of the Silent Majority
📧 igbarman@gmail.com